[
  {
    "claim": "120,640 emigrants last year; record exodus",
    "assessment": "Earlier reported calendar-2025 figure; not current",
    "finding": "September23 official CSV totals111572 for2025 and109535 for2024;2023=112561. Exact archived primary vintage yielding120640 not recovered. Do not imply August clip invented its figure."
  },
  {
    "claim": "Administrative hard count, not a survey estimate",
    "assessment": "Overstated",
    "finding": "StatCan technical guide describes administrative records, models, coverage adjustments and Census Undercoverage Study inputs. Long- and short-term emigrants included; NPR departures separate."
  },
  {
    "claim": "Educated working-age adults are a large share",
    "assessment": "Supported by an older profile, not a2025 cross-tab",
    "finding": "March2026 publication profiles2021:67.0% age20–44;close to70% university-degree holders. Not proof all111572/120640 were working-age professionals."
  },
  {
    "claim": "US,UK,Australia,NewZealand destination ranking",
    "assessment": "Current-flow ranking not verified",
    "finding": "Official portrait ranks Canadian-born stock abroad in2020:US,UK,Australia,France,Italy. Stock is not2025 flow."
  },
  {
    "claim": "Rents roughly doubled in a decade in four cities",
    "assessment": "Large rises, not uniform doubling in checked CMHC series",
    "finding": "2015–2025 apartment structures3+ units: eight one-/two-bedroom metro series rise58.9%–84.9%. Different asking-rent or condominium series not established."
  },
  {
    "claim": "Vancouver average engineer C$130000 vsSeattle US$180000",
    "assessment": "Canadian median annualization reproducible; comparison not like-for-like verified",
    "finding": "JobBank Lower Mainland–Southwest medianC$62.50/hour (2023–2024)*2080 assumed hours=C$130000. CurrentSeattle meanUS$180000 not independently verified."
  },
  {
    "claim": "Higher taxes/lowerUS living costs drive departures",
    "assessment": "Plausible household-specific considerations; causation not established by count",
    "finding": "Need matched household budget including tax,healthcare,currency and housing. No causal estimate or universal comparison established."
  },
  {
    "claim": "Gross emigrants represent workers permanently lost or overall population decline",
    "assessment": "Incorrect equivalence",
    "finding": "Canada2025 emigrants111572 minus returning50064=net61508; includes short-term moves and all ages. B.C.24184 minus9279=14905. Other population components remain separate."
  }
]