--- page 1 --- --- page 2 --- This page intentionally left blank. --- page 3 --- BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN 2026/27 – 2028/29 February 17, 2026 --- page 4 --- National Library of Canada Cataloguing in Publication Data British Columbia. Budget and fiscal plan. –- 2002/03/2004/05- Annual Also available on the Internet. Continues: British Columbia. Ministry of Finance and Corporate Relations. Budget ... reports. ISSN 1207-5841 ISSN 1705-6071 = Budget and fiscal plan — British Columbia. 1. Budget — British Columbia — Periodicals. 2. British Columbia — Appropriations and expenditures — Periodicals. I. British Columbia. Ministry of Finance. II. Title. HJ12.B742 352.48’09711’05 C2003-960048-3 --- page 5 --- BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN - 2026/27 to 2028/29 | i | TABLE OF CONTENTS BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN 2026/27 to 2028/29 February 17, 2026 Attestation by the Secretary to Treasury Board Summary............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Part 1: Tree Year Fiscal Plan Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 7 Expense .............................................................................................................................................................. 9 Consolidated Revenue Fund Spending .................................................................................................. 9 Protecting the Services People Rely On ................................................................................................. 9 Investing in Economic Growth and Security ......................................................................................... 19 Making Neighbourhoods and Communities Safer ................................................................................. 24 BC Public Service .................................................................................................................................. 26 Spending Recovered from Tird Parties ................................................................................................. 36 Transfers to Service Delivery Agencies ................................................................................................... 36 Service Delivery Agency Spending ......................................................................................................... 36 Revenue ............................................................................................................................................................. 40 Major Revenue Sources ......................................................................................................................... 42 Capital Spending ................................................................................................................................................ 49 Taxpayer-Supported Capital Spending .................................................................................................. 49 Projects Over $50 Million ..................................................................................................................... 56 Provincial Debt .................................................................................................................................................. 71 Risks to the Fiscal Plan ....................................................................................................................................... 74 Topic Boxes: Investments in Health Care ................................................................................................................... 12 Expenditure Management and Efficiency Review .................................................................................. 27 Look West: Jobs and Prosperity for a Strong B.C. and Canada .............................................................. 31 Investments in Clean Energy ................................................................................................................. 47 Building a Secure and Sustainable B.C. ................................................................................................. 66 Tables: 1.1 Tree Year Fiscal Plan ................................................................................................................. 7 1.2.1 Protecting Core Services People Rely On .................................................................................... 9 1.2.2 Investments in the Health Care System ...................................................................................... 11 1.2.3 Children and Youth with Supports Needs Redesign .................................................................... 17 1.2.4 Skilled Workforce Investments ................................................................................................... 20 1.2.5 Making Neighbourhoods and Communities Safer ...................................................................... 25 1.3 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency ................................................................................. 38 1.4 Revenue by Source ..................................................................................................................... 39 1.5.1 Comparison of Major Factors Underlying Revenue .................................................................... 41 1.5.2 Provincial Income Tax Revenue .................................................................................................. 42 --- page 6 --- TABLE OF CONTENTS ii | BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN - 2026/27 to 2028/29 1.5.3 Corporate Income Tax Revenue .................................................................................................. 42 1.5.4 Sales Tax Revenue ....................................................................................................................... 43 1.5.5 Federal Government Contributions ............................................................................................ 46 1.6 Capital Spending ........................................................................................................................ 49 1.7 Provincial Transportation Investments ........................................................................................ 54 1.8 Capital Expenditure Projects Greater Tan $50 Million ............................................................. 60 1.9 Provincial Debt Summary .......................................................................................................... 71 1.10 Provincial Borrowing Requirements ........................................................................................... 73 1.11 Provincial Debt Changes ............................................................................................................ 73 1.12 Key Fiscal Sensitivities ................................................................................................................ 74 Part 2: Tax Measures B.C. Tax Updates ............................................................................................................................................... 80 Tax Measures – Supplementary Information ...................................................................................................... 81 Tables: 2.1 Summary of Tax Measures .......................................................................................................... 79 --- page 7 --- BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN - 2026/27 to 2028/29 | iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Part 3: British Columbia Economic Review and Outlook Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ 89 British Columbia Economic Activity and Outlook ............................................................................................. 90 U.S. Tariff Assumptions ........................................................................................................................ 91 Labour Market ...................................................................................................................................... 92 Demographics ....................................................................................................................................... 93 Consumer Spending and Inflation ......................................................................................................... 94 Housing ................................................................................................................................................ 97 Business and Government ..................................................................................................................... 99 External Trade and Commodity Markets ............................................................................................... 101 Risks to the Economic Outlook ......................................................................................................................... 103 External Outlook ............................................................................................................................................... 104 Canada ................................................................................................................................................. 104 United States ......................................................................................................................................... 107 Asia ....................................................................................................................................................... 109 Europe .................................................................................................................................................. 110 Financial Markets ............................................................................................................................................... 111 Interest Rates ......................................................................................................................................... 111 Exchange Rate ....................................................................................................................................... 112 Tables: 3.1 British Columbia Economic Indicators ....................................................................................... 90 3.2 Canadian Real GDP Forecast: Consensus versus B.C. Ministry of Finance ................................. 106 3.3 U.S. Real GDP Forecast: Consensus versus B.C. Ministry of Finance ......................................... 108 3.4 Private Sector Canadian Interest Rate Forecasts .......................................................................... 112 3.5 Private Sector Exchange Rate Forecasts ....................................................................................... 113 3.6.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP): British Columbia .................................................................... 114 3.6.2 Selected Nominal Income and Other Indicators: British Columbia ............................................ 115 3.6.3 Labour Market Indicators: British Columbia .............................................................................. 115 3.6.4 Major Economic Assumptions ................................................................................................... 116 Topic Box: Te Economic Forecast Council, Budget 2026 ....................................................................................... 117 --- page 8 --- TABLE OF CONTENTS iv | BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN - 2026/27 to 2028/29 Part 4: 2025/26 Updated Financial Forecast (Tird Quarterly Report) Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 121 Revenue .............................................................................................................................................................. 123 Expense .............................................................................................................................................................. 123 Contingencies .................................................................................................................................................... 124 Government Employment (FTEs) ...................................................................................................................... 124 Provincial Capital Spending ................................................................................................................................ 125 Provincial Debt ................................................................................................................................................... 126 Risks to the Fiscal Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 127 Supplementary Schedules ................................................................................................................................... 127 Tables: 4.1 2025/26 Forecast Update ............................................................................................................ 121 4.2 2025/26 Financial Forecast Changes ........................................................................................... 122 4.3 2025/26 Capital Spending Update.............................................................................................. 125 4.4 2025/26 Provincial Debt Update ................................................................................................ 126 4.5 2025/26 Operating Statement .................................................................................................... 127 4.6 2025/26 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency ................................................................... 128 4.7 2025/26 Revenue by Source ....................................................................................................... 129 4.8 2025/26 Expense by Function .................................................................................................... 130 4.9 2025/26 Capital Spending .......................................................................................................... 131 4.10 2025/26 Provincial Debt ............................................................................................................ 132 4.11 2025/26 Statement of Financial Position .................................................................................... 133 Appendix ........................................................................................................................................................... 135 --- page 9 --- BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN - 2026/27 to 2028/29 February 17, 2026 As required by Section 7(1)(d) of the Budget Transparency and Accountability Act, I confirm that Budget 2026 contains the following elements: • Fiscal forecasts for 2026/27 to 2028/29 (provided in Part 1) and economic forecasts for 2026 to 2030 (provided in Part 3). • A report on the advice received from the Economic Forecast Council (EFC) in December 2025 (updated in January 2026) on the economic growth outlook for British Columbia, including a range of forecasts for 2026 and 2027 (see Part 3, page 117). • Material economic, demographic, fiscal, accounting policy, and other assumptions and risks underlying Budget 2026 economic and fiscal forecasts. In particular: − British Columbia’s economic outlook reflects continued uncertainty in global trade and lower population growth as a result of the federal government’s immigration policies. The Budget 2026 economic projections for British Columbia are within the range of the outlook provided by the Economic Forecast Council. Growth assumptions for the province’s major trading partners are prudent to reflect external risks. − The economic forecast incorporates the estimated effect of some fiscal policy measures announced in Budget 2026, and the effect of full budget policy measures will be incorporated in the updated economic forecast in the First Quarterly Report. This practice reflects that budget policy measures are generally not finalized while the economic forecast is being developed. − The corporate income tax revenue forecast is based on projections for national corporate taxable income provided by the federal government. − Natural gas royalty forecasts continue to adopt a lower natural gas price forecast compared to the private sector average in order to maintain prudence against volatility. − The fiscal plan includes three-year financial projections for school districts, post-secondary institutions and health authorities, based on plans submitted by those entities to the Ministries of Education and Child Care, Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills, and Health, respectively, and for other service delivery agencies and commercial Crown corporations. − The fiscal plan includes Contingencies vote estimates, totalling $5 billion in each year of the fiscal plan for which spending requirements cannot be estimated with certainty. This allocation reflects funding set aside for uncertain or unforeseen matters, future initiatives, caseload pressures, and collective bargaining mandate costs. Budget 2025 expenditure management targets for 2026/27 onwards have now been reflected in ministry base budgets. The fiscal plan does not include the provision of a forecast allowance. Budget 2026 and the three-year fiscal plan reflect directions and decisions of Cabinet, Treasury Board and the Minister of Finance. To the best of my knowledge, Budget 2026 and the three-year fiscal plan conforms to the standards and guidelines of generally accepted accounting principles for senior governments as outlined in Note 1 of the 2024/25 Public Accounts. I thank the staff in government ministries and agencies for their contribution to this document. I especially acknowledge and thank staff in the Ministry of Finance, whose professionalism, commitment and expertise were essential to the completion of this budget and fiscal plan. Douglas S. Scott Deputy Minister and Secretary to Treasury Board --- page 10 --- This page intentionally left blank. --- page 11 --- BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN - 2026/27 to 2028/29 | 1 SUMMARY | BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN - 2026/27 to 2028/29 trades training and supporting major job-creating projects, government must also be disciplined about the choices ahead to safeguard critical services. Budget 2026 makes realistic choices to raise revenue, making the public sector more efficient to ensure more dollars reach the front lines. At the same time, it focuses on protecting services, keeping taxes low for working families, and strengthening B.C.’s finances for the long term. Protecting Your Services Primary Care and Healthcare Budget 2026 provides over $2.8 billion in new funding over three years to protect, strengthen and expand B.C.’s health care system, including acute care, community care, long-term care, mental health and addictions, and services provided through regional health authorities and Securing B.C.’s Future Budget 2026 makes careful choices to protect what matters most and secure B.C.’s future. Over the last eight years, the B.C. government has focused on the foundations of a strong province by expanding access to family doctors, more affordable housing, easing everyday costs for families through lower cost child care and the BC family benefit, and investing in building the hospitals, schools and roads people rely on. Budget 2026 protects these gains while also facing a tough reality. Global uncertainty is slowing growth everywhere. Global instability and volatile commodity prices are putting pressure on public finances. While the government takes action to grow the economy and invest in B.C.’s future by doubling ($ millions) Updated Forecast 2025/26 Budget Estimate 2026/27 Plan 2027/28 Plan 2028/29 Revenue ………………………………………………………… 85,082 85,523 88,578 91,754 Expense …………….....…....…………………....................... (94,696) (98,832) (100,743) (103,191) Deficit .......................…………………………………………… (9,614) (13,309) (12,165) (11,437) Capital Spending: Taxpayer-supported capital spending …………………........ 12,467 13,664 13,117 10,885 Self-supported capital spending …………………………….. 4,606 5,013 5,048 5,194 Total capital spending ……………………………………… 17,073 18,677 18,165 16,079 Provincial Debt: Taxpayer-supported debt ……………………………………… 116,540 142,897 166,906 189,019 Self-supported debt …………………………………………… 37,519 40,477 42,949 45,540 Total debt ……………………………………………………… 154,059 183,374 209,855 234,559 Taxpayer-supported Debt Metrics: Debt-to-GDP ratio ……………………………………………… 26.1% 30.6% 34.4% 37.4% Deficit-to-GDP ratio …………………………………………… 2.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% Interest bite (cents per dollar of revenue) …………………… 4.9 6.2 7.3 8.2 Economic Forecast: 2025 2026 2027 2028 Real GDP growth ……………………………………………… 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 1.9% Nominal GDP growth …………………………………………… 4.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.2% --- page 12 --- SUMMARY 2 | BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN - 2026/27 to 2028/29 other service delivery agencies. Budget 2026 also includes $131 million in new funding for mental health and addictions treatments, implementing recommendations made by the Province’s Chief Scientific Officer, Dr. Daniel Vigo. Increasing Student Supports Budget 2026 also provides new funding of $634 million, over three years, for the K-12 school system. Tis includes funding for the Classroom Enhancement Fund for additional teachers, special education teachers, and teacher psychologists and counsellors for students with support needs. Child Care Government is continuing its historic investments in child care by investing $330 million over three years to support B.C. families with affordable child care through programs like the Child Care Fee Reduction Initiative. Budget 2026 also includes $25 million in capital and operating spending over the next three years for school districts to use for equipment and capital upgrades to support more before and after school care. Children and Youth with Support Needs Budget 2026 invests $475 million in new funding over three years for children and youth with support needs by providing direct funding to families, strengthening services, expanding choice for families, and improving coordination across health, education, and community systems. A modernized system will be delivered, building on what already works for families – more flexible, more streamlined, more equitable, and better aligned with the diverse needs of children and youth. Making Communities Safer Budget 2026 provides $139 million over three years to provide more community-specific supports to respond to public safety concerns related to repeat, violent offenders and chronic property crime in B.C. communities – including the new Chronic Property Offending Intervention Initiative. Funding also helps to build capacity to ensure timely access to justice and other public safety programs. Government will continue to ensure police have resources to combat extortion threats, including supports for victims and expanding the Provincial Forensic Firearms Lab to help accelerate investigations and charge approvals. Expenditure Management Government continues the important work of reviewing spending to achieve expenditure management targets and ensure public program and service delivery is efficient, effective and affordable over the long term. Government has exceeded initial targets set in Budget 2025 through operational savings and program moderation. Looking ahead, Budget 2026 focuses on continued savings and a more efficient government through administrative and space consolidations, cutting non-essential spending, while protecting frontline jobs and services. Tis includes government’s commitment to reduce the size of the public sector by 15,000 FTEs over the three-year fiscal plan. By making careful choices and reinvesting savings into protecting core services, new funding in Budget 2026 is at levels more comparable to pre-pandemic Budget 2020. For more details, see the Expenditure Management and Efficiency Review topic box starting on page 27. Updating Taxation Tax revenues are the primary source of provincial revenue used to fund the services British Columbians rely on. As a part of government’s long-term efforts to keep up with service demands and improve the fiscal outlook, government has taken careful decisions in Budget 2026 to increase provincial revenue by updating tax programs to reflect B.C.’s economy, get better results for people and to prevent cuts to critical services. Starting the 2026 tax year, government is increasing the tax rate of the first income tax bracket by 0.54 percentage points, while offsetting the extra cost for lower-income earners. Te budget also pauses tax bracket indexing from 2027 through 2030. --- page 13 --- BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN - 2026/27 to 2028/29 | 3 SUMMARY Government continues to help people with costs through measures like the BC Family Benefit, more affordable child care, and lower car insurance rates. Further details are provided in Part 2: Tax Measures starting on page 79. Sustaining Capital Spending for the Future Te Province is continuing to build the infrastructure required to meet the needs of British Columbians with taxpayer-supported capital plan allocations of $37.7 billion over the next three years. Tis, coupled with $15.3 billion in self-supported capital projects, will help support the construction sector. After years of building up infrastructure to close gaps and strengthen services, B.C. is adjusting the pace of the capital plan. Re-pacing the capital plan will provide more fiscal sustainability and predictability and will allow infrastructure investments to continue over the longer term. For more information on government’s capital planning approach, see the topic box on page 66. Growing the Economy Look West: Jobs and Prosperity for a Stronger BC and Canada sets a target to attract $200 billion in new private sector investments over the next decade, ensuring British Columbia is at the forefront of delivering nation building projects that create good jobs, raise revenues to pay for services, and strengthen government’s long-term fiscal outlook. Budget 2026 includes $283 million in new funding over three years to support the commitments set out in this targeted plan. Of this, $241 million over three years will double funding for trades training and SkilledTradesBC, giving tens of thousands of British Columbians the chance to earn more, build careers, and step into good jobs. A new $400 million British Columbia Strategic Investments Special Account will set B.C. up to co-invest and work collaboratively with the Government of Canada as it invests billions of dollars to secure Canada’s sovereignty, along with the jobs and economic opportunities these projects will bring. Building on the past three years of progress in speeding up and streamlining permitting, Budget 2026 invests over $40 million in additional funding over three years to provide stable, ongoing funding that strengthens permitting capacity across the natural resource and tourism sectors. Tis investment supports government’s broader strategy to modernize permitting and regulatory frameworks by removing barriers, delays, and duplication for businesses. Government has made significant investments in building up a world-class talent pool by focusing on advancing technology and innovation as a major economic driver and job creator in B.C. Provincial programs such as the Integrated Marketplace Initiative are helping companies start up and grow, and delivering the infrastructure needed to participate in the sector. Government is taking more action to support business investments in Budget 2026 by introducing a new temporary manufacturing and processing investment tax credit to encourage investments in buildings, machinery and equipment used in manufacturing and processing. Te Province is also aligning the B.C. Scientific Research and Experimental Development tax credit with recent federal changes to expand access and encourage businesses to conduct research and development in B.C. and Canada. Te Province will carefully explore the suitability of adopting a patent box regime for the life sciences sector. Te approach could offer companies lower taxes on profits generated from research and development that was developed and patented in Canada. --- page 14 --- SUMMARY 4 | BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN - 2026/27 to 2028/29 Economic Outlook B.C.’s economy saw mixed performance among sectors in 2025 amid U.S. tariffs and related global economic uncertainty, and declining B.C. population growth. Consumer spending on goods was strong through the first half of the year but has weakened in recent months. Te Bank of Canada lowered interest rates last year and inflation has remained within their target range. Residential construction remained above average in 2025 despite declining from the high levels of activity seen in recent years, and home sales were subdued in 2025. Meanwhile, investment saw steady growth despite headwinds from economic uncertainty. B.C.’s exports have been resilient amid U.S. tariffs and were unchanged compared to the prior year. Te Ministry of Finance estimates that B.C.’s economy expanded by 1.5 per cent in 2025. Looking ahead, the economy is forecast to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2026 before increasing to 1.8 per cent in 2027. Modest growth is expected over the next two years due to trade uncertainty, as well as impacts from the federal government’s reduced immigration targets. As the economy adjusts to these factors, economic growth is expected to improve over the medium-term as immigration levels normalize and uncertainty over trade subsides. Over the medium-term (2028 to 2030), real GDP growth is expected to average 2.1 per cent annually. Overall, the Budget 2026 near-term forecast for B.C. real GDP growth is prudent compared to the average outlook provided by the Economic Forecast Council (EFC), while the medium-term outlook is within the range provided by the EFC. Among provinces, B.C.’s economic growth is expected to be tied for fourth in 2026 and tied for second in 2027, according to private sector forecasters (a subset of the EFC that regularly forecasts economic performance in all provinces, as of January 16, 2026). Fiscal Outlook and Debt Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast to end 2025/26 at $116.5 billion by March 31, 2026, down $2.2 billion from Budget 2025 due to improved operating results and lower capital spending. As a result, taxpayer-supported debt-to-GDP is also expected to be lower at 26.1 per cent, compared to 26.7 per cent last budget. Debt levels are expected to increase over the fiscal plan period to finance operating and capital requirements. Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast to be $189.0 billion by 2028/29 while continuing to remain affordable and low relative to other jurisdictions. As a result of careful choices, Budget 2026 protects commitments and investments made over the last eight years, while achieving a path of declining deficits from 2026/27. As a result, government is showing a downward trending deficit-to-GDP ratio falling from 2.9 per cent in 2026/27 to 2.3 per cent by 2028/29. 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.9 2.4 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 B.C. real GDP (annual per cent change) Sources: B.C. Ministry of Finance; Economic Forecast Council 2026 2027 Economic Forecast Council (January 6, 2026) Ministry of Finance Budget 2026 Economic Forecast Council (January 6, 2026) Ministry of Finance Budget 2026 low average high low average high Budget 2026 E conomic F orecast 46.6 39.7 37.7 8.7 23.6 47.6 40.8 38.9 9.0 27.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 CAN QC ON AB BC Net-liabilities as a percentage of GDP 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast % * Net-liabilities to GDP is used for inter-provincial comparison due the availability of public information. Figures were sourced from each jurisdiction’s latest fiscal or economic update published from February 2025 through November 2025. B.C. figures are based on the Budget 2026 forecast. Debt Affordability Among Provinces --- page 15 --- BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN - 2026/27 to 2028/29 | 5 SUMMARY Risks to the Fiscal Plan Te main risks to the government’s fiscal plan include: • Continued uncertainty around restrictive global trade policies, U.S. tariffs, and renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement; • Immigration and population volatility; • Weaker global economic activity and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, which contribute to the potential volatility in the economic and fiscal outlooks; • Increased costs and demands for government services, such as health care, social programs or recovery from climate related disasters; and • Changes in timing of capital projects and related spending, which may be influenced by several factors, such as market conditions and weather. To mitigate against unexpected and unknown costs, the Contingencies Vote includes allocations of $5 billion in each year of the fiscal plan. Tis includes funding to address caseload pressures, cost increases related to a new collective bargaining mandate and emerging priorities. Budget 2026 does not include the provision of a forecast allowance. Conclusion Budget 2026 takes careful steps to protect our services and economic prospects in a time of continuing global economic uncertainty. Government is protecting the services people rely on and making investments in B.C.’s long-term economic growth while working to improve the fiscal plan over the longer term. --- page 16 --- This page intentionally left blank. --- page 17 --- BUDGET AND FISCAL PLAN - 2026/27 to 2028/29 | 7 PART 1 | THREE YEAR FISCAL PLAN Table 11 TKree