Title: El Niño / La Niña Phenomena

URL Source: https://wmo.int/topics/el-nino-la-nina

Published Time: 2022-12-16T18:24:13+01:00

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7.   El Niño / La Niña Phenomena 

![Image 5: Silver Lining on the ocean](https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/styles/hero_image_desktop_1x/public/2023-04/48671591661_b4215feb0e_k_0.jpg?h=4521fff0&itok=kvVKtYpd)

# El Niño / La Niña Phenomena

 Atmospheric phenomena 

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a naturally occurring climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), involving fluctuating ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the overlying atmosphere.

## Overview

ENSO has two opposite extreme phases: the warm phase, known as El Niño, and the cold phase, known as La Niña. Between these extremes lies a third state called ENSO-neutral. El Niño can typically last up to 18 months and La Niña up to three years.

El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. The name originates with Peruvian fishermen and sailors who noticed a warm current, associated with reduced fish catches, and named it El Niño (“the Christ Child”), likely because it typically became noticeable around Christmas. In contrast, a La Niña event is characterized by unusually cool ocean surface temperatures in the same region and an intensification of the prevailing east to west surface winds.

In the Pacific Ocean, warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures usually mean El Niño conditions, which happen when easterly trade winds become weaker. Cooler-than-normal temperatures usually mean La Niña conditions, when easterly winds become stronger. During the Neutral phase, ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific stay close to normal.

The transition between these extreme phases typically occurs every two to seven years. Both El Niño and La Niña generally begin developing between March and June and reach their peak intensity between November and February.

The effects of each El Niño/La Niña event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and how it interacts with other climate variability modes (such as the Indian Ocean Dipole). Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within a region, impacts can be different. Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur.

The strength of an ENSO event is highly significant – whether it is classed as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. WMO does not use the term Super El Niño or La Niña.

Improved seasonal forecast models can now predict climate patterns one to six months in advance. By identifying trends in heavy rainfall (potentially leading to floods) and drought conditions, this information provides early warning signals that support planning in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health, while also informing the activation of government emergency protocols and the pre-positioning of humanitarian supplies. Together, these actions help to protect resources and save hundreds of millions of dollars and many thousands of lives.

A multiyear La Niña lasted from late 2020 to early 2023, followed by the strong El Niño of 2023–2024. ENSO-neutral conditions began in April–June 2024 and generally prevailed until September–November 2025, with a brief dip into weak La Niña conditions during late 2024 and early 2025. La Niña developed again in late 2025 and lasted until early 2026.

WMO’s [Global Seasonal Climate Update](https://wmo.int/media/update/global-seasonal-climate-update-june-july-august-2026) issued in May 2026 signaled a clear shift in the Equatorial Pacific: sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly, pointing to a likely return of El Niño conditions as early as June–July–August 2026. Forecasts indicate there is a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” in the upcoming three-month period, and regional variations in rainfall patterns.

[WMO El Niño/La Niña Update](https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates/el-ninola-nina-update-may-2026?access-token=oDf4xUTmtnv1U1pNBSswuGJa6fgGkurLsq6lo4u2_NM) issued in June 2026 confirmed an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event through June–August 2026. Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. Although some uncertainty remains about El Niño peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate – and possibly strong.

[WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update](https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/global-seasonal-climate-update/gscu-aso2026) issued on 31 July confirms that a strong El Niño continues to intensify steadily and is expected to dominate global climate patterns through August-October 2026, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and driving significant shifts in rainfall patterns. Combined with exceptionally warm global oceans and the likelihood of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the developing El Niño is expected to shape weather patterns across many parts of the world in the months ahead.

### Measurement

Since the 1980s, the [dominant approach to measuring](https://wmo.int/files/understanding-enso-indices-warming-climate) or identifying El Niño has been the use of the Oceanic Niño Index wherein scientists calculate the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly in a specific region of the Pacific called the Niño 3.4 region. When computed over a three-month average, this becomes the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). In recent years and with global warming, a newer metric of measurement called the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) has gained ground. This approach measures relative warming, not just absolute warming, helping scientists assess whether a warming event is ENSO-driven or mostly due to global ocean warming.

## Impact

ENSO is a major influencer of climate and weather patterns. El Niño events affect temperature and rainfall patterns in different regions and typically have a warming effect on the global climate – the most pronounced impacts are in the year following development. Thus, 2024 was the hottest year on record because of the combination of the powerful 2023–2024 El Niño and human-induced climate change from greenhouse gases.

El Niño is associated with increased rainfall and flooding in parts of South America, East Africa, and the southern United States; drought conditions in eastern and northern Australia, Indonesia, southern Africa, and parts of South Asia due to suppressed monsoon activity; and reduced Atlantic hurricane activity.

The timing and intensity can make a difference. Thus, El Niño is associated with increased rainfall over East Africa, often resulting in a wetter-than-normal, and sometimes severe, “short rains” season between October and December. It is also typically linked to suppressed rainfall during the June–September season over the northern parts of the region, including Sudan, South Sudan, parts of Ethiopia and western Kenya.

There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events. It can amplify associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.

## WMO's response

WMO works closely with Member States and Territories to enhance their capacity to respond to El Niño-related challenges including climate services delivery, monitoring of the climate system, forecasting and capacity development.

WMO issues quarterly [El Niño/La Niña Updates](https://wmo.int/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates) prepared through a collaborative effort between WMO and the [International Research Institute for Climate and Society](https://iri.columbia.edu/ "(opens in a new window)"). These consensus-based reports draw on contributions from leading global centres that monitor and forecast ENSO conditions.

WMO also issues monthly [Global Seasonal Climate Updates](https://wmo.int/publication-series/global-seasonal-climate-updates) which incorporate influences of the other major climate drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. These updates are produced by the [WMO Lead Centre for Seasonal Prediction Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-SPMME)](https://wmolc.org/ "(opens in a new window)") using forecasts from [WMO Global Producing Centres of Seasonal Prediction (GPCs-SP)](https://wmo.int/activities/wmo-integrated-processing-and-prediction-system-wipps/wipps-seasonal-prediction/global-producing-centres-seasonal-prediction-gpcs-sp). It is important that early action be guided by seasonal forecasts which reflect the influence of El Niño and other factors.

WMO sponsors [Regional Climate Outlook Forums](https://wmo.int/activities/csis/regional-climate-outlook-forums-and-regional-climate-forums) around the world, which issue regional predictions. These are then used by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to provide tailored products for government decision-makers and climate sensitive sectors.

WMO actively supports governments – through its Members, United Nations partners and humanitarian organizations – and stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors in mobilizing preparedness actions and protecting lives and livelihoods. For example, the [WMO Coordination Mechanism](https://community.wmo.int/site/knowledge-hub/programmes-and-initiatives/wmo-coordination-mechanism-wcm-support-humanitarian-activities/wcm-global-seasonal-climate-outlook) delivers tailored solutions to support humanitarian preparedness and early action, curating authoritative weather, climate and water information and expert advice from WMO Members and Centres.

ENSO prediction and monitoring support the United Nations Secretary-General call for Early Warnings for All.

**Frequently Asked Questions - El Niño Southern Oscillation**: [Arabic](https://wmo.int/files/alasylt-alshayt-n-zahrt-alnynyw-altdhbdhb-aljnwby), [Chinese](https://wmo.int/files/eerninuo-nanfangtaodongxianxiangchangjianwenti), [English](https://wmo.int/files/frequently-asked-questions-el-nino-southern-oscillation-phenomena), [French](https://wmo.int/files/questions-frequemment-posees-sur-le-phenomene-el-nino-oscillation-australe), [Russian](https://wmo.int/files/chasto-zadavaemye-voprosy-o-yavlenii-el-ninoyuzhnoe-kolebanie) and [Spanish](https://wmo.int/files/preguntas-frecuentes-sobre-el-fenomeno-de-el-ninooscilacion-del-sur)

[El Niño/La Niña Updates](https://wmo.int/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates)

The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared approximately every three months through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).

[![Image 6](https://wmo.int/themes/custom/server_theme/dist/images/cta-button-round-dark.svg)](https://wmo.int/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates)

## Related publications

[![Image 7: Sunset over the sea](https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/styles/related_publication_mobile_x2_226_x_300/public/2023-05/51506703089_585e6cda8a_o.jpg?h=3c2ebe1d&itok=3Zi2VHBh) Global Seasonal Climate Updates](https://wmo.int/publication-series/global-seasonal-climate-updates)

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