Okay, well, let's begin with a warning today then. We'll go through all of that the data. JP Morgan has come out with a pretty strong report warning of a possible, they use the word possible, global food supply crisis which will begin next year. I've been going over all of the data and running the numbers on this today. And I think they're pretty accurate actually. There's a couple of things that even I had missed. And it's quite interesting. So, we've covered a lot of this stuff on the channel around the war. So, the Iran war, we've talked about that the changes in in weather. We have talked about storage capability, water resources. But there's a couple of other things that are taking place all at the same time which is sort of creating this perfect storm which has never really occurred in history before. Obviously, we know about the El Nino which is building up. Uh which is going to be pretty severe this year. We've got some data on that as well. But the onset of the war and the continuation of the Iran war is really pushing everything to the limit. But one thing they even didn't put in this report is actually what's happening in Russia. So, you think of the destruction that's being done to Russian energy infrastructure, fertilizer plants. Obviously, fertilizer needs natural gas. A lot of the Before it was created in in Europe, a lot of the natural gas was used to create fertilizer. That sort of stopped back in sort of 2022 sort of period and a lot of the especially in the Netherlands, a lot of the producers, they just stopped and they they ended up selling their gas natural gas contracts to greenhouses and other places like that. So, we know there's been a a crunch of this and there is no we think about how we have a global oil reserves and how the energy agency manages that and and we talked about that recently, how already 40% of that has been used just in this short period and they can't refill the reserves because it's been destroyed, so much of it has been destroyed and we've got this bottleneck. So, we've got all of this going on at the same time as a as a perfect storm. So, their prediction then is that obviously shortages, there's going to be mass shortages globally. I agree with that, but before anyone panics and runs out to the supermarket to stock up, remember what I said before. A lot of these headlines don't take into account the the fact that in the West we are wealthier than say some of the developing nations. So, that's what you've got to always bear in mind. So, in the West you will always have food available, it's just it will cost more. So, you'll see rampant food inflation. So, it doesn't mean you're not going to have food on the shelves, but it will cost more and that means that other countries you're probably going to see famine and some other real tragedies in in some of the other countries. I just don't see any way to avoid it because we don't have you think of certain countries, China's a good example, massive stores of grains and food for for catastrophes like this. Obviously under Mao they learned a hard lesson. So, there's a lot of lessons learned, but the UK for example doesn't have that. A lot of the European nations don't have these massive reserves. We'll talk about the USDA and their data and what and how they're preparing and what Trump has done. He's done brokered a deal with China. We'll talk about that in a moment. But, one of the forecast then is for the global food inflation rate to rise from it it's just under 3% at the moment, and that's [snorts] looking to go to roughly 6% as we go into 2027. It will be much higher. It'll be 20% or more in some of the developing nations. So, this is going to hit really, really uh hard. But, there's also weakening crop yields anyway, which is which is really hitting capacity. You've seen what's happened with uh UK farming this year. The yields are down massively because of the hot weather and lack of uh of rainfall. So, you think about how important fertilizer is to farmers as well as good weather and rainfall, okay? It's one of the things that that farmers need for a good a good yield, and fertilizers have just exploded in price, and this is just the beginning. It's not the the end of the prices. It's going to be higher prices in uh in fertilizer. One of the things they said in the report is that India, despite having stores, they're going through the stores really quickly. India, Indonesia, and Brazil are going to be very, very heavily affected by this according to the JP Morgan report. Uh and there's so many of these articles. Uh here's one. JP Morgan says, "Hormuz tensions and a possible super El Niño El Niño could trigger a global food crisis by 2027." Uh and we'll go through some of the um some of the data as well around this. Uh real quick though, if you haven't downloaded the guide, the financial survival guide, I'll leave the link in the description below, but I highly recommend downloading this. It's completely free. Won't cost you a penny. I've created it for all of you to download and read. You'll learn a huge amount of things. It comes with an email series as well. Uh what strategies are going to work in this chaotic period as we move forward? The five pillars that protect your money and actually will grow it in any economy. Uh there's a step-by-step action plan as well. Help you to make more money, uh side income, passive income. Uh just you can just download this guide. Just need to pop in your details here and that will get emailed to you. And it it'll talk about a lot of other things. It's the email sequence around it is absolutely enormous. And I mean enormous like this uh jug here. My water jug. But yeah, the emails you'll get with it as well. Um I think there's You can go in and drop out as often as you want. There's about 50 emails that I've written on all different topics, financial, everything from gold to passive income, dividend investing. Uh you don't have to pay anything for it. It's just my gift to to you. Obviously, there's courses and things as well. So, if you want to take up any courses, uh you can do during the the email uh series. So, download that in the description. But the USDA data is actually showing mixed signals on how prepared the US is for this this major event that's coming. So, one thing is that the US is pretty self-sufficient with food. People always say that they're not. And the US are they're going to have this massive famine and and things like this. I I see some of these YouTube videos. That's not actually accurate. The US is a net exporter of a lot of food. Yes, they import some food, but it's only because it's cheaper to import it than grow it themselves. But if we look at the data that's come out then, this is the Department of Agriculture's August world uh supply and demand estimates. They showed global wheat ending stocks for 2026 into 2027 at 273 million tons. So, that's up on July. Uh up another Actually, yeah, so the stocks Yeah, so it's up it it Yeah, it's up on July. So, it's up from 717 million bushels previously. So, the US is looking pretty strong in some They they've missed out a load of the data. That's why I'm sort of pausing on it. But, China has actually moved to support the farmers now. And I thought this was interesting because I was reading Where is it? I was reading about the support that the government has come out with. Yeah. So, the Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced he's giving British farmers 65 million pounds of support to help tackle this massive crisis that's coming. But, one thing I would say to put this into into context here is that didn't didn't he just give Pakistan 130 million pounds >> [laughter] >> for all sorts of weird stuff we won't get into today or the usual weird stuff. So, he's giving the British farmers 65 million pounds to help them with this coming crisis, but he's giving Pakistan 130 million pounds. I think it should be the other way around. Pakistan should be paying the UK that money at the moment for all the the issues that are being being caused from the Well, I think we all we all know. But, if we look at the geopolitical tensions from the the choke point in in Hormuz at the moment, since all this actually started, potash and urea exports, and they're coming from Qatar, Iran, etc., they make up roughly 9.3% of all potash. Uh all 9.3% and 8.4% of global urea exports. So, that was 2025. This year it will be down so so heavily. I can see the chat's going crazy today. I'm glad so many people are online. Thanks for being online. So, we also had NOAA, which is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They have put the odds now to 69% of a historic event, weather event, the worst in history. So, this is worse than anything else that's ever happened. They've put it at 69% now to occur between October through December of this year. They've also said major grain producing rate regions in South Asia and Southeast Asia and Europe are going to be hit incredibly hard. Uh President Trump has actually brokered a trade agreement with China, uh they say in secret. I don't know if if it if it really was in secret. I think a lot of people knew about it. It was on the news, but said he did it in secret to purchase 17 billion dollars of um agricultural imports from China and to sell um exports to China. So, it looks as though the US is uh protected well from this, but is bizarre that you're not hearing this on a lot of media outlets. You know, the UK will hold a Cobra emergency meeting and the outcome is ban barbecues. Baffling, but but that's the that was the outcome. There was nothing about, "Okay, let's get all the grain stocks. Let's start looking at how we're going to deal with this crisis before it hits." None of that. No, they're just going to ban ban barbecues. I mean, as if you can't make it any worse. I'm I'll still be having my barbecues pretty much three times a week or with my South African friends as they call it, a braai, about three times a week. So, uh so there we go. Now, what was the We've got a lot more that we need to cover here. In fact, I will show you briefly. We don't need to go through all of these reports because this was the There's a couple of JP Morgan reports here. Uh let's get on to this one. So, this was sizing fertilizer types. I think the police are coming for me right now with the sirens. Sizing fertilizer types and consumption by crop here. And you can see a global nitrogenous fertilizer use by crop. And we can also see where it all comes from. It's a very good and detailed report if you want to go go through any of these. You can see that the title here, uh climate intuition, etc. There's a lot of these reports. I found them very useful just reading through them. Uh very, very useful indeed. Middle East is a major exporter of urea. And you can see We just talked about Iran and and Qatar there. And I mean, look at that, 9.3%. Uh Iran, 8.4%. Russia, uh Egypt, Saudi Arabia. I mean, look how many of these countries are affected right now. What do you think Western Europe with their 2.5% or Central and Eastern Europe 1.7% is going to save us? This is going to be This is going to be pretty uh severe. And And we had this out of Reuters, which was about 12 What was this? This was about 2 weeks ago, actually. World faces fresh food price surge, the FAO warns. So, we had this come out. But I'm just surprised we're not seeing more of of all of this. The world is on the verge of another bout of food inflation as wars in Iran and Ukraine, along with this El Niño, create a perfect storm of higher costs and lower crop yields. And that was the chief economist of the United Nations um Food and Agricultural Organization. They said this calm is likely to be temporary as higher crude prices, the loss of fertilizer, and the shortage of diesel in some parts of the world and extreme weather are feeding through to costs and will show up in consumer prices even with a delay. I think that's another key point that they're not really talking about enough is that the the oil is a big problem and it's going to be an even bigger problem. But the bigger problem is the refinery capabilities. That's what I think a lot of the outlets are missing. It's even when the the the energy comes back online, it's the refineries. They've all been blowing blow blown up. You've seen all these mystery explosions. There was another mystery explosion on on Friday. There was another mystery explosion on Saturday. And it's they keep calling them all mysteries. Nothing annoys me more when you have an expert comes out and they're asked what what caused the explosion? What was it that caused this huge fire? And they say, "We're investigating it, but it's currently a mystery." It [snorts] drives me mad. You're the expert. Get off give it to somebody else who can actually figure this out if you can't figure You know, you remember the Heathrow fire? I don't know if you remember the Heathrow Airport fire. They said it was about 4 months later. I looked it up cuz everyone had forgotten about it and they said, "It's a mystery. Investigators have put it down to it being a mystery." Right, sure sure it was. You know, it drives me mad all of this stuff that they can't figure stuff out. Now, they said that the costs are seeing accelerating by year end into next year. So again, we've got a pretty accurate timeline when we put all of the different organizations together. So, the end of this year, 2026, into next year, is when we're going to see a lot of this hit. The transmission from the commodity to the final food price, that's your oil to your refined products, so your diesel, etc., into the supply chain, into the food price, that's what they're referring to here is 3 to 6 months. So, we're already going to start to see a little bit of it, but it will be later in the year. Brent, because it's used for pumping, packaging, processing, and transport, and natural gas, because it's used for fertilizers, these are all going to hit. Yeah, we talked about Russia and Ukraine. I think we just saw another massive explosion in in Russia that's just taken place as well. Um they're going after a lot of the Wildberries factories as well, distribution centers, which is a an interesting one. So, the Ukrainian drones are just blowing up all the Think of Wildberries like Amazon for for the West. So, Wildberries is the is the Amazon equivalent. These huge distribution centers, again, the biggest one of all the the centers was just blown up, 1.5 billion dollars in in in losses. So, they're hitting pretty much everything now. All sorts of civilian infrastructure as well. It's pretty It's getting out of control as if it wasn't already the the the war. But, um yeah, it's it's bizarre what's going on. >> [clears throat] >> So, even in the US, it says here, which is self-sufficient for most key inputs, without federal assistance, farmers growing nine principal crops may lose 32 billion dollars. That's from the American Farm Bureau Federation. They've just announced that, 32 billion. So, it's going to hit everybody all at the same time. Global wheat and corn planting was already cut in the first 3 months of the year around war and some of US producers have shifted to soybeans because they require lower fertilizer inputs. Of course they're talking about the El Nino weather as well. About to hit. So this is I mean it's pretty serious what's happening. We got Yeah, I wanted to bring this up as well. I thought this was quite interesting. You'd find interesting. You don't need to see it on screen. I can just read it out. So between 1982 and 1983, a strong a very strong El Nino the official NOAA basically designated for what the media might label a super mega or monster created torrential rainfall and basically destroyed the Southwest even causing reservoirs along the Colorado River to overflow. Which they say seems unimaginable in the drought-stricken area today. In 1997 another very strong El Nino directly caused 23,000 deaths by causing floods, droughts and wildfires around the world. But way back in 1877, so we're really going back now what's that 150 years? It perfectly aligned with other climate climate phenomena including a record strong Indian Ocean dipole and we have to look up this word d i p o l e. I'm going to look that up straight after to cause the deaths of an estimated 50 million people. So this was basically the worst they've ever recorded. But this is where it gets interesting. They're now saying that there's a chance of 81% according to NOAA between October and December which is different. So 81% they're forecasting and I think the other forecast from JP Morgan was 69%. I think it was 69%. So I'm going to go by Noah. So, 81% that this could be the worst ever recorded because of everything coming together at the same time, including the war, including the drought and the heat, etc. So, this could be absolutely I can't even imagine how bad this one could be. I mean, honestly. [snorts] And we'll talk about this article in a second. But, another interesting is what's taking place in the Netherlands. Now, if we didn't have X, for example, and some other socials, I don't think people would even know what's taking place. That there is mass protests in the Netherlands. We also have Here's another one in the Netherlands right now. This is taking place. The farmers are yet again fighting for their future. People say, "I didn't even know this was going on." People just had no idea this is all going on. If you want to re-read any more of the reports, by the way, this is an interesting one. Uh WMO, prepare for the El Nino. I thought that was quite another quite an interesting one. We covered that one. Uh and then I want to just cover this. So, this was the UK forecast of a recession. So, Britain's economy is likely to shrink in 2027 due to the Strait of Hormuz staying closed. This is from EY. This is one of their forecasts. So, they they don't think really going to see much growth at all in the UK this year, but they say they're going to stave off a recession. Uh I I think the only way the UK will will hold off a recession is if they keep doing what they're doing, but it's going to cause a massive issue with the bond market. And that's more borrowing, more spending, etc. Yeah, you can keep doing it because that's what governments do. You got two options. Keep borrowing, keep spending, or you tighten your belt, right? And you're fiscally responsible. But that that governments never do it. So, that this is what they're going to do. Keep spending, and you get more inflation, more inflation. That's how Germany ended up with the Deutschmark and the the the Rentenmark, and they had hyperinflation. There's a lot of other causes to that, but this is what happens. You always see hyperinflation over fiscal responsibility. So, I think that's probably the the the the path they'll go to is is more printing. But, one one thing they said in their report, "If the Strait of Hormuz opens in the coming months, then the downturn won't be as severe. But, if it stays closed this year, then it's going to be severe." is what they said. I would agree with that. They've got inflation at 6.4% at the end of the year, which is which is high. But, remember, if you own assets, if you own any assets, high inflation is good for you. It's only bad if you don't own any assets at all. For example, if you own a home, if you have a mortgage on that home. Remember that I bought my property when the inflation rate was 11%. I think it was about 10.4% when I bought my property. And I got a mortgage at at before that, cuz it was I secured it in before that. Something like 2.9%. So, if you have assets, it's positive for you because the inflation destroys the capital that you owe, and it pushes up asset prices. But, if you don't own assets, it's bad. I mean, I don't like inflation. And and you might say, "Why?" If you own assets, it's it's positive for me, but it's bad for for people that don't own assets, and it creates massive wealth inequality, which is why I don't like inflation. I think it's a terrible thing, and it's created in one place and one place only in most cases, and that's with the government and the central central bank with the actions they take to create more currency. So, it's not looking positive at all. And pretty much no positive forecast at the minute. There really isn't much good news, I'm afraid to say. Everything is is very negative with the outlooks, but remember, when we go into periods like this, as I've said for years, ever since 2020 when I started this this channel, you've just got to prepare, and then you can play the other side as soon as you know that what the governments are going to do, you can do the opposite of that so that you can actually take advantage of it. And if you don't want to take advantage of it, at least protect yourself. So, that's the the main thing. Definitely download that that free guide as well. Protect yourself, protect your assets. And >> [snorts] >> and if nothing else, at least it's something interesting to talk about at a party when you don't know what to say to people. So, thanks so much for being online today. I really appreciate all of you. Thanks for being subscribers here. Take care. God bless. I'll see you on the next live stream this week. Bye for now.