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LEDGEMEDIAGROUP - STORY RESEARCH BRIEF

Canada & British Columbia - reports, data sources & monitoring guide

THE THESIS

JPMorgan warns of a POSSIBLE global food supply crisis beginning in 2027, driven by Strait of Hormuz
disruption plus a probable super El Nino, compounding war-driven losses in fertilizer, refining and energy. The
verifiable, public reports point to rising food inflation (roughly 3% to ~6% globally, 20%+ in developing nations) -
not empty shelves in Canada. BC's real exposure runs through highway cutoffs, drought and farm economics.
USDA WASDE (Aug 2026), FAO food-price warning via Reuters, American Farm Bureau $32B loss estimate, EY UK outlook,
IEA reserve drawdown. Public and checkable.

The JPMorgan note (a risk scenario framed on YouTube as a prediction) and NOAA's El Nino odds ("81% worst-ever" is not
NOAA's phrasing - they publish ENSO probabilities).

The video funnels to a paid "Financial Survival Guide" + courses. Direction (inputs to food inflation) is sound; certainty and
timelines are salesmanship.

Prepared Aug 18, 2026 - Source video: Neil McCoy-Ward livestream (Aug 17, 2026) - Verify primary sources before publication
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THE SOURCE VIDEO

"JPMorgan Predicts Major Food Crisis Next Year" - Neil McCoy-Ward, Aug 17 2026 (24 min livestream)

e@ Perfect storm: Iran war + Strait of Hormuz chokepoint + super El Nino + destroyed Russian energy/fertilizer infrastructure.

e Fertilizer: natural-gas feedstock crunch; Middle East (Qatar/Iran) = ~9.3% of potash, 8.4% of urea exports; Western Europe
only 2.5% - no backfill.

e Weather: NOAA cited at 81% odds of a historic El Nino Oct-Dec 2026; grain belts in South/Southeast Asia and Europe hit
hardest.

e Food inflation: ~3% now to ~6% into 2027; 20%+ in developing nations; famine risk in import-dependent countries.

e US relatively protected: net food exporter; wheat stocks revised UP (273Mt global 2026/27, USDA Aug); Trump brokered $17B
ag trade deal with China.

e@ Transmission lag: commodity-to-shelf prices take 3-6 months - the crunch shows in consumer prices late 2026 into 2027.

e@ UK: PM announced 65M pounds farm support; COBRA meeting outcome mocked ("ban barbecues"); EY sees UK recession
2027 if Hormuz stays closed; UK CPI 6.4% year-end.

e@ Farmer stress: US producers shifting wheat/corn to soybeans (less fertilizer); planting cut in Q1; mass farmer protests in the
Netherlands.
EDITOR'S NOTE
Worth covering as a data story, not a panic story. The strongest material (WASDE, FAO, Farm Bureau) is free and primary - we can
cite it directly and check every number ourselves.
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THE UNDERLYING REPORTS (1 OF 2)
1. JPMorgan - global food crisis note
Claim: Hormuz tensions + possible super El Nino could trigger a global food crisis by 2027. India, Indonesia, Brazil most exposed; India
drawing down grain stores fast. ~69% odds cited on stream.
Access: JPMorgan Research is client-paywalled - track via Reuters/Bloomberg coverage. Treat as scenario analysis, not forecast.
2. JPMorgan - fertilizer market report
Content: fertilizer types & consumption by crop; supply origins - Iran ~8.4% of global urea exports, Qatar/Iran ~9.3% of potash; Russia,
Egypt, Saudi also key; Western Europe 2.5%, CEE 1.7%.
Why it matters: fertilizer is the single clearest channel from the Iran war to food prices.
3. USDA WASDE - August 2026
World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates: global wheat ending stocks 2026/27 = 273 million tonnes, revised UP from July; US up
from 717M bushels. "Mixed signals" on preparedness.
Access: FREE, monthly (~10th) - usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/wasde
4. NOAA - ENSO/ El Nino outlook
Cited: 81% chance of historic super El Nino Oct-Dec 2026 (presenter's figure). Historical anchors: 1982-83 (Colorado River reservoirs
overflowed), 1997 (23,000 deaths), 1877 (~50M deaths with record Indian Ocean Dipole).
Access: FREE, updated weekly/monthly - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (ENSO diagnostics)
5. WMO - El Nino advisory
“Prepare for the El Nino." World Meteorological Organization global advisory referenced on stream.
Access: FREE - wmo.int news + ENSO updates
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THE UNDERLYING REPORTS (2 OF 2)
6. FAO via Reuters (~2 weeks prior)
“World faces fresh food price surge, FAO warns." UN FAO chief economist: wars in Iran & Ukraine + El Nino = higher costs, lower yields;
crude, fertilizer loss, diesel shortage feed shelf prices with a delay.
Access: FREE - FAO Food Price Index, monthly (first Friday) - fao.org/worldfoodsituation
7. American Farm Bureau Federation
Without federal assistance, US farmers growing the nine principal crops stand to lose $32 billion.
Access: FREE - fb.org market-intel
8. EY - UK economic forecast
Britain likely shrinks in 2027 if Hormuz stays closed; UK inflation 6.4% by end of 2026; reopening Hormuz softens the downturn.
Access: FREE - ey.com UK ITEM Club forecasts
9. IEA - strategic petroleum reserves
Referenced: ~40% of coordinated reserves already drawn during the crisis; refilling impaired by destroyed infrastructure.
Access: iea.org (some data paywalled; headline reports free)
10. Geopolitics bundle (news reports)
US-China $17B agricultural trade deal; UK 65M pounds farm aid (vs 130M to Pakistan); Netherlands farmer protests; strikes on Russian
refineries + Wildberries distribution centers (~$1.5B loss).
Access: Reuters / AP wires
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BEYOND THE VIDEO - THE CANADIAN TOOLKIT
Canada's Food Price Report (Dalhousie / Guelph / UBC / USask)
THE canonical Canadian source. Annual, released each December. 2025 edition: food prices +3-5%, ~$16,800/yr for a family of four
(+$800). The 2026 edition (Dec 2026) is watch item #1 - it will price in everything from this brief.
Statistics Canada - CPI food components
Monthly (~3rd week). "Food purchased from stores" vs "from restaurants". Our benchmark for local price stories; free at statcan.gc.ca.
Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada - Outlook for Principal Field Crops
Monthly supply/demand for wheat, canola, barley, pulses. Canada is a top-5 wheat exporter - this is the domestic mirror of the USDA
WASDE.
Canadian Grain Commission
Weekly grain deliveries & export data - early warning on rail/port bottlenecks.
Farm Credit Canada - Farmland Values Report
Annual. Farmland values rising while farm margins compress = the "asset owners win, operators lose" dynamic in Canadian form.
Food Banks Canada HungerCount / Food Banks BC Hunger Report
Annual demand data - the ground-truth indicator of food stress. BC usage has hit record highs in recent editions.
Competition Bureau grocery study (June 2023) + Grocery Code of Conduct
Explains why Canadian shelf prices respond the way they do: 3 chains dominate; code of conduct now in force - watch whether it blunts
pass-through inflation.
Nutrien (TSX: NTR) results & potash prices
Saskatoon-based, world's largest potash producer. If the Hormuz/war thesis is real, Canadian fertilizer backfills the gap - earnings
guidance is the tell.
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BRITISH COLUMBIA - EXPOSURE & LOCAL STORY HOOKS
BC'S REAL VULNERABILITIES (documented precedents)
@ Nov 2021 atmospheric river: Hwys 3, 5 & 8 severed - Interior grocery shelves thinned within DAYS. Single-corridor dependence is the
Boundary's #1 food-security fact (Hwy 3).
e@ Drought 2023-24: ranchers culled herds on hay shortages; water restrictions; BC drought level portal is the early-warning dashboard.
@ Jan 2024 cold snap: ~90% of BC's wine-grape crop destroyed; tree-fruit damage (peaches, cherries) across the Okanagan/Similkameen.
@ Wildfire smoke: taints wine grapes, stresses forage and livestock.
@ Port of Vancouver + CN/CPKC labour disruptions: grain exports and container imports both hostage to one corridor.
e Winter trucking: Interior resupply vulnerability November-March on any closure.
LOCAL STORY HOOKS (Boundary / Greenwood)
@ Boundary food bank demand trend vs HungerCount provincial numbers.
@ Local price basket: track milk/bread/eggs/beef monthly at Greenwood, Midway & Grand Forks stores vs StatCan CPI-food.
@ Rancher & farmgate economics: hay costs, herd sizes, irrigation cutoffs along the Kettle River.
@ School meal program pressure as prices rise.
@ Winter preparedness angle: what happens to resupply if Hwy 3 closes for a week in January?
@ Local counterpoint: Canada is a food EXPORTER - the BC story is logistics & price, not scarcity.
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MARKET TRENDS - IF THE THESIS PLAYS OUT
LIKELY WINNERS
Fertilizer producersNutrien (TSX: NTR) - the Canada-first pick; also Mosaic, CF Industries, Yara. Supply squeeze = pricing power.
Ag commodities & EVifeat/corn/soy futures; DBA, WEAT, CORN, MOO.
Farmland REITs: FPI, LAND; Canadian farmland values (FCC report).
Energy & tankers Crude bid, diesel crack spreads; tanker rates spike on Hormuz risk (FRO, DHT).
Ag machinery / seeDkprecésding, ADM, Bunge.
Gold Money-printing + inflation-hedge narrative lifts juniors - relevant to Ximen (TSXV: XIM).
LIKELY LOSERS
Grocers' margins Loblaw, Metro, Empire squeezed between costs and consumer backlash; discount formats gain share.
UK assets EY stagflation call: gilt yields up, GBP pressure.
Long-duration bond#+ inflation = higher-for-longer rates.
Food-importing EMIndia/Indonesia/Brazil importers: currency + stability risk.
THE MECHANISM
Commodity-to-shelf lag is 3-6 months. Confirmation window: StatCan food CPI prints in Q1-Q2 2027. That is when this story either
proves itself or fades.
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MONITORING CHECKLIST & RED FLAGS
WEEKLY
@ NOAA ENSO update (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) - El Nino formation odds.
@ Strait of Hormuz status (Reuters/AP shipping wires).
@ BC drought levels (gov.bc.ca/drought) in season.
MONTHLY
@ USDA WASDE (~10th) - wheat ending stocks direction.
@ FAO Food Price Index (first Friday).
@ StatCan CPI (~3rd week) - "food from stores" YoY.
@ AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops.
QUARTERLY / ANNUAL
@ Nutrien earnings guidance (potash pricing = thesis tell).
@ FCC Farmland Values (annual).
@ Food Banks Canada HungerCount + Food Banks BC report (fall).
@ Canada's Food Price Report (December) - the headline Canadian number.
ESCALATION RED FLAGS - publish when these trip
@ Wheat futures +20% in a month, or urea/potash spot spikes
@ WASDE revises global stocks DOWN two months running
@ StatCan food CPI breaks above 6% YoY
@ Hormuz closure extends past Q4 2026
@ BC declares drought level 4-5 in the Kettle/Boundary basins
@ CN/CPKC or Port of Vancouver strike notice
Prepared for story development - verify primary sources before publication. Video figures attributed to presenter.